Bitcoin: Will this threat wipe out improving sentiment?

Bitcoin: Will this threat wipe out improving sentiment?



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  • The Federal Reserve’s next interest rate hike could undo Bitcoin’s recent gains.
  • A look at what BTC traders should expect in case of a bearish outcome.

Bitcoin [BTC] just concluded an exciting week characterized by the return of volatility, and bullish demand. At the same time, the extended downside that has occurred for the last few weeks had BTC holders anxious about the short to mid-term outlook.

Is your portfolio green? Check out the BTC Profit Calculator

There is renewed hope and excitement now that Bitcoin bulls are back. However, there is one major situation that could hold back BTC’s upside or even erase the recent gains.

Notably, the U.S. Federal Reserve is slated to make an announcement regarding its next interest rate decision. An interest rate hike could spoof investors and lead to more price suppression.

Trending news: FED might hike rates again?! To make this news easier to deal with, here’s a limerick:

There once was a man named Powell,
Whose rate hikes made many a scowl.
The markets did dip,
Investors did flip,
And folks started throwing in the towel.

— LunarCrush Social Trends (@LunarCrush) September 15, 2023

Another instance of sell pressure would prevent Bitcoin from recovering back to the $30,000 range. Perhaps it could even push it back to the lower $20,000s.

But is there a chance that Bitcoin could avoid more downside? Well, whales and institutional investors have been participating, thus contributing to bullish momentum.

Are Bitcoin whales playing the market once again?

Bitcoin addresses holding at least 1,000 and 10,000 BTC pivoted on 11 September after previously contributing to sell pressure. This confirmed the bullish whale activity. However, in this case, we should be establishing whether there might be incoming sell pressure.

Bitcoin whale activity and realized cap

Source: Glassnode

Despite the whale accumulation, realized cap remains low, which means most of the buyers that bought BTC in the last 30 days are still not in profit. In other words, there is not much of an incentive to sell, hence the potential downside could be limited.

Meanwhile, the recent return of confidence in the market has been attracting a lot of new addresses. According to the latest Glassnode alerts, the number of new Bitcoin addresses just reached a new 5-year high.

📈 #Bitcoin $BTC Number of New Addresses (7d MA) just reached a 5-year high of 26,005.952

Previous 5-year high of 25,964.494 was observed on 09 January 2021

View metric:

— glassnode alerts (@glassnodealerts) September 15, 2023

The observation suggested that the recent resurgence of bullish momentum might be attracting a lot of retail investors. This could also highlight a potential risk in the next few days.

An unfavorable outcome in interest rates could render retail traders at the mercy of the whales. This is because retail might provide enough exit liquidity for the whales.

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2023-2024

If the above outcome occurs, then there is a possibility that Bitcoin might give up recent gains despite the recent bullish divergence. On the other hand, it is also possible that most of the sell pressure is already priced in.

If that is the case, investors should expect a limited downside, potentially followed by accumulation as whales take advantage of the discount.

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